AN immediate economic decline has been forecast for the Bathurst region if the proposed bypass becomes a reality.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
However, this is expected to be a short-term effect of a project that could otherwise deliver enormous benefit to residents of and visitors to Bathurst.
The projection has come to light as part of the investigation into the possibility of a Bathurst bypass.
The economic analysis, conducted by consultants Egis Oceania, highlighted a significant increase in through-traffic and heavy vehicles.
The number of daily trips was about 3000 in 2006, and has since risen to about 10,000 prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, while the share of heavy vehicles in traffic has increased from 7 per cent to 20 per cent.
"As Bathurst's population has grown, and traffic volumes increased, the community's safety, amenity and connectivity has been adversely impacted," Egis Oceania said.
"The need for an alternative route for traffic by-passing Bathurst, particularly for heavy vehicles is increasing exponentially."
In terms of tourism impact, it is assumed there will be negative growth in visitor numbers for the first three years post bypass, based on a study from 2011, the Economic Evaluation of Town Bypasses: Review of Literature.
The same study also found recovery to pre-bypass tourism visitors and 25 per cent above trend growth in tourism for the following 10 years.
Councillors have expressed confidence that Bathurst will see similar results if a bypass were to be built.
"Where you've got an economic downturn to start with, it will turn around and it will be an economic bonus," Cr Warren Aubin said.
He said that people who pass through Bathurst on the way to their destination would be unlikely to stop anyway, unless it was because they noticed fast-food retailers or needed a bathroom break.
For that reason, he doubts Bathurst would lose much in the way of visitors, and he said there would likely be opportunities for new convenience businesses to open on the bypass road.
Cr Jess Jennings also thinks Bathurst would recover from any decline in visitor numbers.
"Believe it or not, there is actually economic papers out there of academic research that has looked at the preexisting case studies and ... they usually show a short-term negative impact, followed by a medium to long-term actual gain, which is sometimes seen as contradictory to what you expect if you're getting people to go round," he said.
"But realistically the people who do come to town, want to come to town, actually make a dedicated stop, probably spend more money and, on top of that, you have the benefits to the town itself, and in our case I think those would be substantial."
Council has voted to endorse the early stage proposal for a Bathurst bypass, and it will continue the discussions it has been having with Transport for NSW.
It will need to have the support of the state government before it can make a submission to Infrastructure Australia to get the project on the priority list.
If the project doesn't make the priority list, council will not be able to attract the enormous funding needed to deliver the major infrastructure project.
Reading this on mobile web? Download our news app. It's faster, easier to read and we'll send you alerts for breaking news as it happens. Download in the Apple Store or Google Play.
Rachel Chamberlain
I have been a journalist at the Western Advocate since 2014.
I have been a journalist at the Western Advocate since 2014.
